Ben Levinstein, Rutgers, Philosophy Department
Higher-order evidence, Accuracy, and Information Loss
Higher-order evidence is evidence that you're handling information out of accord with epistemic norms. For instance, you may gain evidence that you're possibly drugged and can't think straight. A natural thought is that you respond by lowering your confidence that you got a complex calculation right. If so, HOE has a number of peculiar features. For instance, if you should take it into account, it leads to violations of Good's theorem and the norm to update by conditionalization. This motivates a number of philosophers to embrace the steadfast position: you shouldn't lower your confidence even though you have evidence you're drugged. I disagree. I argue that HOE is a kind of information-loss. This both explains its peculiar features and shows what's wrong with some recent steadfast arguments. Telling agents not to respond is like telling them never to forget anything.