Isaac Wilhelm, Rutgers, Philosophy Department
A statistical analysis of luck
According to Pritchard's analysis of luck (PAL), an event is lucky just in case it fails to obtain in a sufficiently large class of sufficiently close possible worlds. Though there are several reasons to like the PAL, it faces at least two counterexamples. After reviewing those counterexamples, I introduce a new, statistical analysis of luck (SAL). The reasons to like the PAL are also reasons to like the SAL, but the SAL is not susceptible to the counterexamples.