Betting Markets Not Infallible on Pope Predictions, Statistics Prof. Says
Despite some bettors favoring Cardinal Pietro Parolin as the next pope, the various conclave betting markets can't rival the accuracy of those predicting events like elections, statistics professor Harry Crane tells USA Today. That's because bigger markets tend to lead to better predictions. "Does it have more predictability than if you just picked one out of 130 cardinals, and you gave them all the same chance of winning? I would say 'yeah probably,' Crane said.
